March 3, 2008

Andrew Skwara and Bob McClellan
Rivals.com College Basketball Staff

The final audition process has begun as we enter the final week of the regular season.

Some teams need to pull off a big upset to land an NCAA Tournament bid. Some need to avoid being on the wrong end of an upset to land in the field of 65. Others just need to win, regardless of the opponent.

Bubble teams aren't the only ones with plenty at stake.

The winner of the North Carolina-Duke rematch at Cameron Indoor Stadium on Saturday will move into the driver's seat to land a No. 1 overall seed. Stanford can move into a tie for first place in the Pac-10 and seriously damage UCLA's chances of landing a No. 1 seed on Thursday when the Cardinal faces the Bruins at Pauley Pavilion. Other teams are looking to lock up a coveted first-round bye in their league tournaments.

So, who has the most to prove before those league tourneys begin?

Rivals.com basketball editor Bob McClellan and staff writer Andrew Skwara make their picks.

SKWARA'S PICK: OHIO STATE

No bubble team is more desperate for a quality win than Ohio State.

How to define "quality win" is up for debate. Perhaps it's beating someone that has locked up an NCAA Tournament bid, or someone ranked in the top 25. What it's not is any of the 17 victories Ohio State has on its fragile resume. The Buckeyes have been beating up on the bottom half of a league that ranks sixth in the RPI conference ratings. None of their eight Big Ten victories have come against an opponent with a winning record in league play.

The Buckeyes don't have a win over any team in the top 50 of the RPI. Their most impressive victories came against two other bubble teams whose stock is also slipping fast: Syracuse and Florida.

That could all change this week. With home games left against Purdue and Michigan State ? who each locked up bids to the Big Dance long ago ? Buckeyes coach Thad Matta and his young squad can show the selection committee they can beat an NCAA Tournament team.

Beat both and the Buckeyes will lock up an NCAA Tournament bid. Beat at least one and they'll give themselves a chance, depending on what happens with the other bubble teams. Lose both and they're only hope of getting in the field of 65 will be a highly improbable run to the Big Ten Tournament title game.

MCCLELLAN'S PICK: FLORIDA

The Gators are in danger of becoming the first defending national champ not to get asked back to the Big Dance since the 1989 Kansas team, otherwise known as Danny-less and the Not-So-Miraculous.

Time to show yourselves, baby Gators. You've got a big final week, with two huge chances to show the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee that while you're in no way ready to defend your back-to-back titles, you deserve inclusion in the field of 65.

UF sits at No. 49 in the RPI, firmly in bubble range. And it's actually a remarkable accomplishment that the Gators have managed to raise their RPI into the 40s after playing a non-conference schedule that New Jersey Institute of Technology could have negotiated successfully. Their non-conference strength of schedule ranks 287th.

Florida has an embarrassing one win against a team in the top 50 of the RPI. It could use another, and it has at least one chance this week, when it plays host to Tennessee. The Vols have been No. 1 in the RPI for several weeks, and just playing UT will help the Gators' RPI. The Gators finish the regular season at Kentucky, one of their two other wins against teams in the top 100 in the RPI. The Wildcats (No. 56) could crack the top 50 by the time the teams play.

If UF loses both of its games this week, it will limp into the SEC Tournament having lost six of its past 10. It would be the SEC East No. 4 seed, and it could be looking at a matchup with Ole Miss, LSU or Alabama, two of which beat the Gators. One and done in the SEC postseason, and it's hello, NIT.

CAST YOUR VOTE: Which team has most to prove to the selection committee?

Bob McClellan is the college basketball editor for Rivals.com. He can be reached at bmcclellan@rivals.com.
Andrew Skwara is a national writer for Rivals.com. He can be reached at askwara@rivals.com.