April 28, 2008

Bob McClellan & Andrew Skwara
Rivals.com College Basketball Staff

North Carolina sophomore guards Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington announced Friday that they would test the NBA Draft waters. Then, Danny Green made himself eligible for the draft Saturday. But forward Tyler Hansbrough, the consensus national player of the year, said he would return for his senior season.

Hansbrough averaged 22.6 points and 10.2 rebounds for the Tar Heels, who went 36-3 and reached the Final Four before being crushed by Kansas in the national semifinals, 84-66. It was Hansbrough's first appearance in the Final Four.

Apparently, he'd like another crack. Is he making the right call, or should he have bypassed his senior season and entered the NBA Draft?

Basketball editor Bob McClellan and staff writer Andrew Skwara debate Hansbrough's choice.

MCCLELLAN'S PICK: STAY IN SCHOOL

Hansbrough is a great college player. He's never going to be a great NBA player, so what's the rush? Enjoy college while you can. He's not going to hurt his draft position by staying in school. He'll post virtually the same stats next season as he did this season, and the Tar Heels will win a bunch of games.

Hansbrough long has said he wants to win a national championship before he leaves school. That probably won't happen unless Lawson and Ellington return. Without them, the Tar Heels' incoming freshman class would have to deliver big time, especially point guard Larry Drew. That, or point guard Bobby Frasor would have to be ready to go after suffering a torn ACL on Dec. 27 that sidelined him for the rest of the season.

Still, I like Hansbrough's call. He's in position to become not only his school's leading career scorer (at 2,168 points, he's just 122 behind Phil Ford) but his league's leading career scorer. And what's more noble than a Tar Heel trying to knock a Blue Devil from the top spot? Hansbrough is 602 points away from overtaking Duke's J.J. Redick atop the ACC list. He even could reach the 3,000-point barrier, which only seven players in the history of Division I have done.

The NBA will be there for Hansbrough next year. You get to do your senior year only once, and who among us wouldn't take that opportunity again?

SKWARA'S PICK: SHOULD HAVE GONE

There are plenty of players who have entered the draft who shouldn't have. But Hansbrough tops the far shorter list of players who should have.

Unlike most players with eligibility left, Hansbrough cannot improve his stock. He is coming off a season in which he won nearly every national player of the year award. He set career-highs by averaging 22.6 points and 10.2 rebounds. Numbers like that can't get much better.

Hansbrough's stock could go down, though. Just ask Joakim Noah and Roy Hibbert. Noah was considered the possible No. 1 overall pick after being selected the Most Outstanding Player of the 2006 Final Four and leading Florida to a national title that season. But Noah chose to stay for his junior season and was taken with the ninth pick in the 2007 draft. Hibbert was projected as a lottery pick in 2007 after playing well against the No. 1 pick in that draft (Greg Oden) in the Final Four. But Hibbert pulled out of the draft and now is projected as a late first-rounder in some mock drafts this year.

Hansbrough already is being projected to be selected in the 15-20 range of the 2009 draft. But what if he falls in the 25-30 range? That would cost him somewhere in the neighborhood of $1 million. And if Hansbrough falls into the second round, he wouldn't even be guaranteed a contract. Yes, it's unlikely, but it's still a huge risk.

I could sympathize with Hansbrough's decision if he were doing it for a chance to win a national title (which Noah did). But Hansbrough knows UNC guards Wayne Ellington and Ty Lawson could be gone next season. Both have entered the draft, but have not signed with agents. If those two leave, I can't see the Tar Heels winning it all. Especially not without Ellington, who is their only good 3-point shooter.

I'm not buying into the allure of setting more records, either. Hansbrough already owns dozens of impressive records. He is going to be remembered as a great player regardless of what happens next season. The big difference could be to his bank account, not his legacy.

» CAST YOUR VOTE: Did Tyler Hansbrough make the right choice?

Bob McClellan is the college basketball editor for Rivals.com. He can be reached at bmcclellan@rivals.com.
Andrew Skwara is a national writer for Rivals.com. He can be reached at askwara@rivals.com.