September 29, 2008

Bob McClellan & Andrew Skwara
Rivals.com College Basketball Basketball Analyst

Effective this season, the 3-point line in the men's game is moving back 1 foot to 20 feet, 9 inches.

It's the first major alteration to the line since its inception in the college game in the 1986-87 season.

The desired effect is less crowding in the lane. Some coaches believe it will create more room for everyone to operate, post players and perimeter guys.

Is the game going to change significantly, or will the net effect of the line moving back be negligible? That's the question we posed to basketball editor Bob McClellan and staff writer Andrew Skwara.

SKWARA'S PICK: SIGNIFICANT IMPACT

I've heard a lot of people tell me the new 3-point line won't matter. They say, "It's only one foot, right?" They like to point out that a lot of players already take and make 3-pointers from 3-4 feet behind the line. Some can go farther back.

I'm not buying any of it. Everybody has a specific limit to their shooting range. I don't care if you wheeze your way through a pickup game with your out-of-shape co-workers once a week, or you've got a meeting tomorrow to design your third sneaker. Your range is basically as far back as you can shoot from without changing your natural form. For some guys it's only 15 feet. For others it's 25 feet or more. Regardless of where your range ends, when you step back just 12 inches from that spot, your shooting percentage drops dramatically. You are out of your comfort zone. You have to overcompensate, often putting more of your body into the shot instead of just flicking your wrist.

Here's the problem: The range of most of the big men who shoot 3-pointers in the college ranks ? and there are plenty ? usually stops right around the old 19-9 line. Suddenly those guys are no longer inside-outside scorers. Many of their coaches will take away their green light, and they sure don't want them shooting from a foot inside the arc (the shot that is often described as the worst in basketball).

But, seeing fewer big men shoot 3-pointers will only be the most noticeable change. Everyone will be affected in one way or another. Shooting percentages are going to drop significantly. There will be fewer double-digit comebacks and there will be a bigger premium on 3-point specialists and teams with a plethora of good outside shooters. There is going to be more room to maneuver inside the arc. That will make it harder to double-team post players. It could also lead to more mid-range jumpers, a sort of lost art form that was pushed out by the arrival of the 3-point line.

There's a reason many coaches made sure that the 20-9 line was painted on their practice floors in the offseason. They know the game is about to change, and those who adapt first will have a big edge.

MCCLELLAN'S PICK: NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT

For those expecting to see a wholly different game it isn't going to happen. Coaches who build their offenses around the 3 are still going to shoot nearly the same amount. Coaches who don't won't.

Players are used to making sure their feet are behind the line at 19-9. What's another foot? The best shooters in the college game probably are hoping for professional careers, so I hope when they practice they're chucking a lot of jumpers from the NBA 3-point line, which is well behind 20-9.

I don't believe 3-point shooting percentages will change dramatically either. Some coaches I've talked to have said one thing the new line might do is keep guys who were marginal at 19-9 from trying as many 3s as they might have otherwise. If you're better shooters are the ones launching from 20-9, maybe some teams actually will shoot it better from behind the arc.

Will it create that much more space? I doubt it. If you like to spread the floor and have guys who can handle the ball you were fine at 19-9 and will be fine from 20-9.

My biggest concern is guys locating the line with another one on the floor. There will be some confusion early. But other than that, I just don't see a major change.

Bob McClellan is the college basketball editor for Rivals.com. He can be reached at bmcclellan@rivals.com.
Andrew Skwara is a national writer for Rivals.com. He can be reached at askwara@rivals.com.