February 11, 2009

Mike Huguenin
Rivals.com College Basketball Editor

We're about four weeks from "Selection Sunday" (March 15), and here is our weekly look at how we think the NCAA tournament field will look when it is unveiled that day.

It's important to note that this is a projection, not how the field would look if it were decided today.

Teams are grouped by projected seed and listed from strongest to weakest within that seed. At the bottom is a breakdown by league of the number of projected bids and some information on the makeup of the field, the selection committee and the sites.

(Note: All RPI figures are through play Monday and come from collegerpi.com.)

Rivals.com Drive for 65

No. 1 seeds

1. Connecticut 2. North Carolina 3. Oklahoma 4. Duke The buzz: UConn has won 11 in a row and is looking quite good for the overall No. 1 seed. North Carolina makes the short trip to Durham on Wednesday night for a showdown with archrival Duke; UNC is trying to nail down the opportunity to play in Greensboro, N.C., in the first and second rounds of the NCAA tournament. Oklahoma looks like the only non-ACC or Big East team with a chance to grab a No. 1 seed ? and if things break right, OU actually could end up as the No. 1 seed overall. Duke's game with UNC on Wednesday obviously will be important in the Blue Devils' quest for a No. 1 seed ? and to be able to play in Greensboro.

No. 2 seeds

5. Pittsburgh 6. Louisville 7. Michigan State 8. Wake Forest The buzz: Pitt still has enough big games left that it could grab a No. 1 seed; the same goes for Louisville. Both also could fall a spot or two, though. Michigan State is in great shape for the Big Ten regular-season title. Wake has lost three of its past five, and it, too, hopes to be able to play in Greensboro in the first and second rounds.

No. 3 seeds

9. Marquette 10. Xavier 11. Memphis 12. Villanova The buzz: Marquette could move up a spot in the seedings ? and it also could fall a spot or two. Its closing schedule is murderous (at Georgetown, vs. UConn, at Louisville, at Pitt and vs. Syracuse between Feb 21 and March 7). Xavier has three tough regular-season games left, including two contests against Dayton. Memphis looks as if it will go unbeaten in Conference USA play for the third consecutive season. Villanova needs a few more "big" wins to be seeded this high, but we think the Wildcats will get them.

No. 4 seeds

13. UCLA 14. Kansas 15. Clemson 16. Illinois The buzz: UCLA has turned it up offensively and looks as if it's the best team in the Pac-10. Kansas has been a pleasant surprise and still could win the Big 12, which is down this season. Clemson has some key road wins and has the opportunity to get a few more. Illinois isn't the most prolific offensive team, but the Illini are rugged defensively and still have an outside chance at the Big Ten regular-season title.

No. 5 seeds

17. Butler 18. Missouri 19. Washington 20. Purdue The buzz: Butler should win the Horizon League, and a BracketBuster date at Davidson will go a long way toward determining the Bulldogs' seeding. Missouri's last-second win over Kansas on Monday night was huge, and the Tigers still have a chance to win the Big 12 regular-season title. Washington looks to be the second-best team in the Pac-10, and the Huskies have just two road games left in the regular season. Purdue is a different team without sophomore forward Robbie Hummel ? a team not nearly as good as when Hummel is in the lineup. The Big Ten regular-season title seems out of reach for the Boilermakers, and the question is whether they can finish second.

No. 6 seeds

21. Ohio State 22. Arizona State 23. Syracuse 24. West Virginia The buzz: Ohio State has won four in a row, but the Buckeyes play four of their next six on the road. Arizona State has a huge four-game stretch looming starting Thursday: vs. UCLA, vs. USC, vs. Arizona and at Washington. Syracuse has lost five of its past seven ? and has games with UConn and Villanova next. West Virginia has lost four of its past six and could end up sliding a few spots in the seedings.

No. 7 seeds

25. Texas 26. California 27. Minnesota 28. Florida The buzz: Texas has stumbled lately, leading Longhorns fans to lament, "Man, we really miss D.J. Augustin." California has won two in a row and is back in the hunt for the Pac-10 title. Minnesota has lost four of six, and the Golden Gophers' lack of offense obviously hurts. Florida's non-conference schedule was a joke and this seeding is predicated on the Gators winning the SEC East title.

No. 8 seeds

29. Utah 30. Florida State 31. Utah State 32. Gonzaga The buzz: Utah has a great RPI (12th heading into Tuesday's play) despite being just 2-4 against teams in the RPI top 50. Florida State's closing schedule gives the Seminoles an opportunity to move up a few spots in the seedings; the flipside is it also could knock them down a few spots ? or even out of the field. Utah State is running away with the WAC regular-season title. Gonzaga has won just one of its past five non-conference games, but the Zags clearly look to be the best team in the West Coast Conference.

No. 9 seeds

33. Tennessee 34. UNLV 35. Cincinnati 36. Virginia Tech The buzz: Tennessee played a tough non-conference schedule, but the Vols need to take care of business in the weaker-than-usual SEC. UNLV has underachieved a bit but still has the chance to win the Mountain West regular-season title. Cincinnati put a hurt on Georgetown's and Notre Dame's NCAA chances last week, and in the process, the Bearcats improved their own chances. Virginia Tech needs to make some hay in the next 10 days because the Hokies' five-game closing stretch is tough.

No. 10 seeds

37. USC 38. Davidson 39. LSU 40. Kentucky The buzz: USC plays four of its next six on the road ? and each of the road games is against a team with NCAA hopes. Davidson has all but wrapped up the Southern Conference regular-season title. LSU plays at Mississippi State in a big SEC West game Wednesday night; the Tigers look to be the only West team with a legit NCAA at-large shot. Kentucky has stumbled a bit lately and needs some more wins.

No. 11 seeds

41. Boston College 42. San Diego State 43. South Carolina 44. Siena The buzz: Boston College is in the midst of a four-game stretch that will make or break its NCAA at-large hopes. San Diego State is tied for the Mountain West lead with Utah and is looking for its third NCAA bid in eight seasons. South Carolina has been a surprise under first-year coach Darrin Horn, who guided Western Kentucky to the Sweet 16 last season. Siena has a good RPI (29th) ? but it also has no wins over a team in the RPI top 50.

No. 12 seeds

45. Dayton 46. BYU 47. Texas A&M 48. Wisconsin The buzz: Dayton plays host to Xavier on Wednesday night, and a win gives the Flyers a legitimate opportunity to win the Atlantic 10 regular-season title. BYU remains in the hunt for the title in the Mountain West, which has a great chance to get four teams in the field of 65. Texas A&M has lost five of seven, but the Aggies have enough big games left on the schedule to right the ship. Wisconsin looked as if it was out of the NCAA picture, but the Badgers have won two in a row and are entering a stretch in which they could increase that to five in a row.

No. 13 seeds

49. Northeastern 50. Western Kentucky 51. Northern Iowa 52. Buffalo The buzz: Northeastern is in a three-way tussle for the Colonial title, but the Huskies already have beaten Virginia Commonwealth and George Mason, their closest pursuers for the crown. Western Kentucky can all but nail down the Sun Belt regular-season title in its next two games, road trips to Troy and Arkansas-Little Rock; those are the other league teams with legit title possibilities. Northern Iowa is atop the Missouri Valley, which has been an overall disappointment this season. Buffalo has a one-game lead over Miami University in the MAC title race, and the Bulls won by 12 at Miami last month.

No. 14 seeds

53. Stephen F. Austin 54. Vermont 55. VMI 56. Cornell The buzz: Stephen F. Austin is our pick to win the Southland and make its first NCAA trip. Vermont is one of three teams with a good chance to win the America East title, and the Catamounts won by 14 at Boston U., which currently leads the league. VMI leads the nation in scoring and is in good shape to win the regular-season title in the Big South. Cornell is looking for its second consecutive NCAA bid out of the Ivy League.

No. 15 seeds

57. American 58. Weber State 59. North Dakota State 60. Belmont The buzz: American is looking for its second consecutive NCAA bid out of the Patriot League. Weber State has won six in a row and is in good shape to win the Big Sky title. North Dakota State has a three-game lead in the win column in the Summit League in its first season of full Division I eligibility. Belmont gets to play the Atlantic Sun tourney in its hometown of Nashville.

No. 16 seeds

61. Long Beach State 62. Robert Morris 63. Morgan State 64. UT-Martin 65. Alabama State The buzz: Long Beach State is the leader in the Big West and is looking for its second bid in three seasons; the 49ers were first-round losers in 2007, then won just six games last season. Robert Morris is running away with the Northeast Conference regular-season title. Morgan State, at 164th, is the only MEAC team whose RPI is better than 238th. UT-Martin is tied for the Ohio Valley lead in the loss column and has one of the best players in the nation in senior guard Lester Hudson. Alabama State is our pick to win the SWAC, and the SWAC winner almost certainly will be in the play-in game.

LAST FOUR IN

Wisconsin, Texas A&M, BYU, Dayton

LAST FOUR OUT

Arizona, Miami, Michigan, Oklahoma State

BREAKDOWN BY LEAGUE

8: Big East 7: ACC 6: Big Ten 5: Big 12, Pac-10, SEC 4: Mountain West 2: Atlantic 10 1: America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Colonial Athletic Association, Conference USA, Horizon, Ivy, Metro Atlantic, Mid-American, Mid-Eastern Athletic, Missouri Valley, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Southwestern Athletic, Summit, Sun Belt, West Coast, Western Athletic (23)

SOME NOTES ON THE MAKEUP OF THE FIELD

? The NCAA uses an "S curve," meaning it ranks all 65 teams in order 1-65, then places them in regions under the theory the top No. 1 seed would have the worst No. 2 seed in its bracket, the worst No. 1 seed would have the top No. 2 seed, etc. The balancing of the regions is the most important factor in seeding the tournament. ? As far as other rules go, teams from the same conference hopefully won't meet until a regional final, but the NCAA has relaxed that because some conferences have six and seven bids (it's even permissible for an intraconference matchup in the second round, though that is to be avoided whenever possible). But the first three teams selected from a given conference must be in different regions. ? Higher-seeded teams should be placed as close to home as possible. No team may play on its home floor, but most sites are "neutral courts" anyway. ? Teams can move up or down a spot or two in the "S-curve," maybe even a seed, to preserve other principles. ? SEC commissioner Mike Slive is the chairman of the 10-member NCAA Tournament Selection Committee this season. He is one of four members with a "Big Six" affiliation, joining UCLA athletic director Dan Guerrero, Connecticut athletic director Jeff Hathaway and Ohio State athletic director Gene Smith. The other six members: Xavier AD Mike Bobinski, Texas-San Antonio AD Lynn Hickey, Utah AD Chris Hill, Kent State AD Laing Kennedy, UC Riverside AD Stan Morrison and George Mason AD Thomas O'Connor. O'Connor was the chairman last season. Hickey is just the second woman to ever serve on the committee, following Charlotte AD Judy Rose (1999-2003).

2009 TOURNAMENT DATES

March 17: Opening-round game in Dayton, Ohio First and second rounds March 19 and 21: Greensboro, N.C.; Kansas City, Mo.; Philadelphia; Portland, Ore. March 20 and 22: Boise, Idaho; Dayton, Ohio; Miami; Minneapolis Regional semifinals and final March 26 and 28: Boston; Glendale, Ariz. March 27 and 29: Indianapolis; Memphis, Tenn. Final Four April 4 and 6: Ford Field, Detroit

Mike Huguenin is the college sports editor for Rivals.com. He can be reached at mhuguenin@rivals.com.