February 18, 2009

Steve Megargee
Rivals.com College Basketball Staff Writer

MORE: Mountain West building toward March

EVANSVILLE, Ind. ? Not too long ago, the Missouri Valley Conference seemed on the verge of separating itself from the rest of the mid-majors and giving college basketball an unofficial seventh major conference.

The Valley sent multiple teams to the NCAA tournament every season from 1999-2007. Never was the league's progress more evident than in 2006, when it earned four bids and advanced two teams (Bradley and Wichita State) to the Sweet 16.

The Missouri Valley earned only one NCAA bid last season and has no schools ranked among the top 50 teams in the RPI. After ranking as high as sixth in the RPI conference standings in 2006 and '07, the Missouri Valley is 10th this season, behind fellow mid-majors Mountain West, Atlantic 10 and Conference USA.

"A lot of people in the media aren't even mentioning us as a league that can get two [NCAA bids]," Missouri Valley commissioner Doug Elgin told Rivals.com. "Quite frankly, I don't know if we can."

What happened?

In at least one respect, the Missouri Valley was a victim of its own success. Each of the past three seasons, an MVC coach has parlayed an NCAA tournament appearance into a new job in a major conference. Iowa State hired away Northern Iowa's Greg McDermott after the Panthers earned their third consecutive NCAA bid in 2006. One year later, Wichita State's Mark Turgeon left for Texas A&M. Providence lured Keno Davis from Drake after last season.

Bradley's Jim Les, Creighton's Dana Altman and Southern Illinois' Chris Lowery are the only Valley coaches who have been at their respective positions for longer than four seasons. Altman nearly joined the exodus two years ago, but he returned to Creighton less than 24 hours after being introduced as Arkansas' new coach.

"I'm not trying to imply that change isn't good," Elgin said. "Change can be better. But the continuity of our head coaches was clearly a strength during that nine-year run [1999-2007]. We've had six new head coaches in the past two years."

Roster turnover probably has hurt the league even more than the coaching turnover. Experience obviously plays a critical role at any level of college basketball, but it's particularly essential for mid-major programs that are unlikely to sign four- and five-star prospects who could make instant impacts anywhere.

The 10 MVC teams currently are starting 10 freshmen, nine sophomores and just 15 seniors, and only 23 of the league's 50 starters were returning starters. By contrast, the MVC had 38 starters back in both the 2006-07 and 2007-08 seasons. Further contrast: The Mountain West ? which could get as many as four NCAA bids this season ? returned almost 70 percent of its starters from last season.

"One of the things you've got to look at is the youth in our league, the number of players in our league who are freshmen and sophomores but who are very good players," Les said. "There's a youth to our league that says the future is very bright. In those terms, it's a little bit cyclical."

A look at the Missouri Valley's statistical leaders reveals an emphasis on experience. Five of the league's top seven scorers and four of the league's top five rebounders are seniors. But the prevalence of freshman and sophomore starters has raised optimism that the Valley eventually could recapture its heights of 2006 and '07.

"I don't think we've had a downturn or anything," Altman said. "I think we're just a lot younger than our teams have been. It might be a one-year down cycle, but I think a lot of [MVC teams] feel like they're going to be pretty good next year.

"Northern Iowa's got everybody back. We've got a lot of people back. Southern [Illinois] is playing a young squad. Bradley's young. There are a lot of teams that have a lot of young players who feel good about their future."

Not everyone in the MVC is ready to admit the conference is going through any type of down cycle. While the league doesn't have as many legitimate NCAA contenders as before, the conference's backers insist the league is more balanced than ever. The Valley doesn't have any teams with an RPI in the top 50, but it also has only two teams (No. 217 Indiana State and No. 219 Missouri State) outside the top 200. Still, the Missouri Valley had a total of two teams finish with an RPI outside the top 200 for a three-year stretch from 2006-08.

"I think there's been a lot more parity these past few years," said Evansville forward Shy Ely, who leads the conference with 18.0 points per game. "Teams are beating up on each other night in and night out. My first two years, it seemed like teams like Southern Illinois and Creighton were at the top of the league all the time, and there weren't a lot of other good teams."

MVC schools are a combined 2-14 against top-50 RPI teams this season, and both those wins came against teams from outside the "Big Six'' conferences. Wichita State edged Siena 72-70 on Nov. 28, and Creighton defeated Dayton 77-59 on Dec. 10.

Creighton (22-6, 12-4 MVC) has an RPI of 53rd and is the only league team with an outside chance of earning an at-large bid, said Jerry Palm, the publisher of collegerpi.com.

Palm noted that Creighton probably would have to win the Valley's regular-season title and reach the conference championship game to have a legitimate shot at an at-large invitation. Creighton is a half-game behind Northern Iowa, which has an RPI of 81st, in the league race.

Although lllinois State owns a 21-5 record, the Redbirds seem unlikely to earn an at-large bid because they're 60th in the RPI and haven't faced any top-50 opponents. The lowest-rated team to earn an at-large bid last year was No. 58 Oregon, which went 4-9 against top-50 foes.

Illinois State coach Tim Jankovich said it isn't necessarily fair to judge a conference's strength by how many NCAA bids it receives. He pointed out that a league can get undeserved praise for being a two-bid league just because one team dominated the conference during the regular season before getting upset in the postseason tournament. Jankovich said he believes the Missouri Valley's balance should outweigh its lack of elite teams.

"I've been in a lot of leagues and have seen a lot of situations where there are a number of nights that you pretty much know you've got a great chance to win, or there are two or three teams you pretty much know you can sweep," said Jankovich, who was hired off Kansas' staff. "In this league, in the two years I've been here ? and I mean this sincerely ? there's not one game, not one place where I basically walk into the locker room feeling like this one's pretty much done already."

Illinois State guard Champ Oguchi has a similar impression of the conference. Oguchi experienced life in a "major" conference when he began his college career at Oregon. Oguchi admits the athleticism in the Pac-10 was at a different level than what he has experienced at Illinois State.

"In the Pac-10, 6-foot-6 guards like me come a dime a dozen," Oguchi said. "You don't see too many of those here."

But that doesn't mean the brand of basketball in the Missouri Valley is that much worse.

"I can honestly say this league is very underrated," Oguchi said. "The Missouri Valley is a very tough conference. Come March, there should be at least two teams [earning NCAA bids] from this conference."

Though Elgin concedes his league might send only one team to the NCAA tournament this year, he believes the Missouri Valley has a bright future.

Attendance remains high, as the conference for the first time could have three teams average 10,000 fans per game. Missouri State just moved into a new $67 million arena. All the underclassmen in starting lineups across the league should only get better.

"I think we're at a point now where we understand that we're going to be better next year," Elgin said, "and probably even better still in two years."

The conference's name says all you need to know about its current situation. The league enjoyed unprecedented heights in 2006 and hopes to reach that peak again in the near future. Now, it's just going through a little valley.

Steve Megargee is a national writer for Rivals.com. He can be reached at smegargee@rivals.com.