March 6, 2009

Mike Huguenin
Rivals.com College Basketball Editor

We're only nine days from "Selection Sunday" (March 15), and here's our second bracket projection of the week; we do projections on Monday and Friday.

It's important to note that this is a projection, not how the field would look if it were decided today.

Teams are grouped by projected seed and listed from strongest to weakest within that seed. At the bottom is a breakdown by league of the number of projected bids and some information on the makeup of the field, the selection committee and the sites.

(Note: All RPI figures come from collegerpi.com.)

Rivals.com Drive for 65

No. 1 seeds

1. North Carolina 2. Connecticut 3. Pittsburgh 4. Michigan State The buzz: North Carolina is in great shape to play in Greensboro, N.C., in the first and second rounds of the NCAA tournament. Pitt and UConn finish off the regular season playing each other, but both look like No. 1 seeds. Michigan State easily could be a No. 2 ? or even a No. 3.

No. 2 seeds

5. Oklahoma 6. Kansas 7. Duke 8. Louisville The buzz: Oklahoma's struggles down the stretch could cost the Sooners what looked like a sure No. 1 seed. And Louisville could play itself into a No. 1.

No. 3 seeds

9. Memphis 10. Villanova 11. Wake Forest 12. Washington The buzz: Memphis likely will enter the NCAA tourney with a 25-game winning streak. The flipside? The Tigers' best wins this season have come over Gonzaga and Tennessee, which aren't exactly world-beaters.

No. 4 seeds

13. Missouri 14. Florida State 15. Xavier 16. Illinois The buzz: Missouri still has a shot at a No. 3 seed. And so does Florida State, which has been one of the nation's biggest surprises despite having just one guy averaging in double figures.

No. 5 seeds

17. Marquette 18. Purdue 19. Clemson 20. West Virginia The buzz: Marquette isn't the same team without Dominic James, and that is showing on the court ? and likely will cause an earlier-than-could've-been-expected NCAA exit.

No. 6 seeds

21. UCLA 22. LSU 23. Syracuse 24. Arizona State The buzz: LSU already has clinched the SEC regular-season title, but Wednesday's home loss to Vanderbilt doesn't help the Tigers' potential seeding. And Arizona State's late-season skid has hurt, too.

No. 7 seeds

25. Texas 26. Butler 27. Utah 28. Gonzaga The buzz: If Gonzaga wins the West Coast tournament ? we're predicting Saint Mary's ? the Zags easily could end up with a No. 6 seed.

No. 8 seeds

29. Tennessee 30. BYU 31. California 32. Wisconsin The buzz: BYU has played well of late, and the Cougars have a shot at winning the Mountain West tourney, which might get them a higher seed.

No. 9 seeds

33. Arizona 35. Ohio State 36. Minnesota 34. Boston College The buzz: Arizona needs to beat Stanford on Saturday to finish 9-9 in the Pac-10 ? and the Wildcats have to finish 9-9 if they want an at-large bid. BC needs to beat Georgia Tech to finish .500 in the ACC ? and the Eagles need to do that if they want a bid.

No. 10 seeds

37. Dayton 38. Creighton 39. Oklahoma State 40. Saint Mary's The buzz: Creighton might be able to get an at-large should it fall in the final of the Missouri Valley tourney. But Saint Mary's needs to win the West Coast tourney if it wants a bid ? and because guard Patrick Mills is back, the Gaels are our pick to win it.

No. 11 seeds

41. UNLV 42. Siena 43. Maryland 44. Penn State The buzz: UNLV's only realistic hope of an NCAA bid is to win the Mountain West tournament. The good news for the Runnin' Rebels is that they host the league tourney. Maryland has to beat Virginia on Saturday to truly feel good about an at-large bid.

No. 12 seeds

45. Utah State 46. Texas A&M 47. South Carolina 48. Rhode Island The buzz: South Carolina and Rhode Island still have some work to do. And unlike some other power-conference schools, Texas A&M actually has been hot at the end of the season.

No. 13 seeds

49. Davidson 50. Virginia Commonwealth 51. American 52. Troy The buzz: While Davidson would be iffy to get a bid should it fall in the Southern Conference tourney, some meltdowns by power-conference schools this week offer a glimmer of at-large hope should the Wildcats need one.

No. 14 seeds

53. Weber State 54. Binghamton 55. Stephen F. Austin 56. Kent State The buzz: Binghamton and Weber State are the top seeds in their respective leagues. Kent State is the only MAC team that is playing good basketball right now ? the Golden Flashes have won nine of their past 11 ? and they're our pick to win the league tournament.

No. 15 seeds

57. Cornell 58. North Dakota State 59. East Tennessee State 60. Robert Morris The buzz: Cornell plays its two remaining Ivy League games at home, while second-plate Princeton goes on the road for its final three.

No. 16 seeds

61. Morehead State 62. Morgan State 63. CS Northridge 64. Radford 65. Alabama State The buzz: Alabama State is the projected winner in the Southwestern Athletic Conference; the SWAC winner is a good bet (a sure bet?) to be in the play-in game.

LAST FOUR IN

Rhode Island, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Penn State

LAST FOUR OUT:

Michigan, New Mexico, Virginia Tech, San Diego State

BREAKDOWN BY LEAGUE

7: ACC, Big East, Big Ten 6: Big 12 5: Pac-10 3: Atlantic 10, Mountain West, SEC 2: West Coast 1: America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Colonial Athletic Association, Conference USA, Horizon, Ivy, Metro Atlantic, Mid-American, Mid-Eastern Athletic, Missouri Valley, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Southwestern Athletic, Summit, Sun Belt, Western Athletic (22)

SOME NOTES ON THE MAKEUP OF THE FIELD

? The NCAA uses an "S curve," meaning it ranks all 65 teams in order 1-65, then places them in regions under the theory the top No. 1 seed would have the worst No. 2 seed in its bracket, the worst No. 1 seed would have the top No. 2 seed, etc. The balancing of the regions is the most important factor in seeding the tournament. ? As far as other rules go, teams from the same conference hopefully won't meet until a regional final, but the NCAA has relaxed that because some conferences have six and seven bids (it's even permissible for an intraconference matchup in the second round, though that is to be avoided whenever possible). But the first three teams selected from a given conference must be in different regions. ? Higher-seeded teams should be placed as close to home as possible. No team may play on its home floor, but most sites are "neutral courts" anyway. ? Teams can move up or down a spot or two in the "S-curve," maybe even a seed, to preserve other principles. ? SEC commissioner Mike Slive is the chairman of the 10-member NCAA Tournament Selection Committee this season. He is one of four members with a "Big Six" affiliation, joining UCLA athletic director Dan Guerrero, Connecticut athletic director Jeff Hathaway and Ohio State athletic director Gene Smith. The other six members: Xavier AD Mike Bobinski, Texas-San Antonio AD Lynn Hickey, Utah AD Chris Hill, Kent State AD Laing Kennedy, UC Riverside AD Stan Morrison and George Mason AD Thomas O'Connor. O'Connor was the chairman last season. Hickey is just the second woman to ever serve on the committee, following Charlotte AD Judy Rose (1999-2003).

2009 TOURNAMENT DATES

March 17: Opening-round game in Dayton, Ohio First and second rounds March 19 and 21: Greensboro, N.C.; Kansas City, Mo.; Philadelphia; Portland, Ore. March 20 and 22: Boise, Idaho; Dayton, Ohio; Miami; Minneapolis Regional semifinals and final March 26 and 28: Boston; Glendale, Ariz. March 27 and 29: Indianapolis; Memphis, Tenn. Final Four April 4 and 6: Ford Field, Detroit

Mike Huguenin is the college sports editor for Rivals.com. He can be reached at mhuguenin@rivals.com.