March 6, 2009

Mike Huguenin
Rivals.com College Basketball Editor

Conference tournament breakdown

It's the last Saturday of the regular season and ? no surprise ? it's filled with big games.

Regular-season titles will be decided in the Big East, Big 12 and Mountain West, and a lot of bubble hopes could go up in smoke today as well.

We will update our "Tournament Tracker" daily as we count down toward Selection Sunday. We take a look at the day's best game and explain how it will impact the NCAA field, as well as spotlight the key game involving bubble teams. We also will review how bubble teams performed in their previous day's games.

NCAA TOURNAMENT TRACKER

GAME OF THE DAY Connecticut at Pittsburgh, noon, CBS: A portion of the Big East title is on the line. If UConn wins, it clinches at least a share of the title. If Pitt wins and West Virginia beats Louisville on Saturday night, the Panthers, Huskies and Cardinals will finish 15-3 in the league. Pitt won by eight at UConn in mid-February, thanks to DeJuan Blair's utter domination inside. Will UConn big man Hasheem Thabeet play better this time? Both teams look to be in good shape for No. 1 seeds in the NCAA tournament. In fact, each has a shot to be the overall No. 1 with a win in this one. BUBBLE WATCH GAME OF THE DAY Michigan at Minnesota, noon, ESPN: A big one for the Wolverines, who could take a big step toward nabbing an at-large bid if they can win in Minneapolis. Michigan beat the Golden Gophers by 12 in Ann Arbor on Feb. 19, and a win in this one would make the Wolverines 9-9 in the Big Ten. Minnesota looks to be in the field, and a win in this one certainly wouldn't hurt the Gophers' seeding.

IN THE TOURNAMENT (1) Ivy: Cornell NCAA TOURNEY LOCKS (31) ACC (5): Clemson, Duke, Florida State, North Carolina, Wake Forest Atlantic 10 (1): Xavier Big 12 (4): Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas Big East (7): Connecticut, Louisville, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia Big Ten (3): Illinois, Michigan State, Purdue Conference USA (1): Memphis Horizon (1): Butler Mountain West (2): BYU, Utah Pac-10 (4): Arizona State, California, UCLA, Washington SEC (1): LSU, Tennessee West Coast (1): Gonzaga ONE-BID LEAGUES REGARDLESS (16) America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Colonial, Ivy, Mid-American, Mid-Eastern Athletic, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southland, Southwestern Athletic, Summit, Sun Belt. KEY RPI FOR TODAY Arizona: 57th Auburn: 72nd Boston College: 58th Creighton: 38th Davidson: 67th Dayton: 25th Florida: 53rd Kentucky: 79th Maryland: 56th Michigan: 45th Minnesota: 32nd New Mexico: 65th Oklahoma State: 28th Penn State: 59th Rhode Island: 46th San Diego State: 44th Siena: 27th South Carolina: 47th Texas A&M: 33rd UNLV: 50th

OTHER GAMES OF INTEREST
Georgia Tech at Boston College
Time, TV: Noon, ACC syndication/ESPN FullCourt BC needs to win this game to feel good about an at-large bid. Georgia Tech beat Miami on Wednesday, which knocked UM out of the at-large discussion.
Massachusetts at Rhode Island
Time, TV: 2 p.m. Rhode Island needs to win this to keep its at-large dream alive. As it is, the Rams need to win this and at least once in the Atlantic 10 tournament to have a legit shot at a bid.
California at Arizona State
Time, TV: 2 p.m., CBS regional Both teams will be in the NCAA field, but Arizona State is looking to snap a three-game losing streak.
Kentucky at Florida
Time, TV: 2 p.m., CBS regional Neither has a real shot at an at-large bid, but the loser definitely can go ahead and make NIT plans.
South Carolina at Georgia
Time, TV: 2 p.m., SEC syndication/ESPN FullCourt South Carolina's only shot for an at-large bid is to win this, then ? probably ? win at least once in the SEC tourney. The Gamecocks' schedule wasn't strong, and they have no RPI top-50 wins.
Penn State at Iowa
Time, TV: 2 p.m., Big Ten Network Penn State looks as if it will get an at-large bid ? as long as it beats Iowa. It's not that a win over the Hawkeyes would help that much; it's that a loss could be a killer.
Syracuse at Marquette
Time, TV: 2 p.m., Big East syndication/MASN/ESPN FullCourt Marquette needs to show it can win without point guard Dominic James, who is injured and out for the season. Syracuse is playing for NCAA tournament seeding.
Missouri at Texas A&M
Time, TV: 2 p.m., ESPN2 Missouri is safely in the NCAA field, while A&M could lock up a bid if it wins. If the Aggies lose, they likely would need to win once in the Big 12 tournament.
Appalachian State vs. Davidson
Time, TV: 2 p.m., no TV This is a Southern Conference quarterfinal. Davidson won the regular-season meeting by 18 at Appalachian State. Davidson is the No. 1 seed and the prohibitive favorite to win the league tournament. The Wildcats have a slim at-large shot should they lose in the tourney final.
Maryland at Virginia
Time, TV: 3:30 p.m., ABC regional/ESPN FullCourt This is a must-win game for the Terps as they try to play their way into the NCAA field. A loss would mean they would have to make a long run in the ACC tournament if they want a bid.
Oklahoma State at Oklahoma
Time, TV: 3:30 p.m., ABC regional/ESPN FullCourt Oklahoma still is in the hunt for a No. 1 seed. Oklahoma State could lock up an NCAA bid if it can pull the upset. Should the Cowboys lose, they're still in OK shape for an at-large berth.
New Mexico at Wyoming
Time, TV: 3:30 p.m., The mtn. A New Mexico victory means the Lobos would at least share the Mountain West title; they head into the weekend tied with BYU and Utah for first place. A loss would end the Lobos' stay on the NCAA bubble.
LSU at Auburn
Time, TV: 4 p.m., SEC syndication/ESPN FullCourt Auburn has no shot at an at-large bid if it loses. Heck, it's a long shot even if it wins. But consider: A win makes Auburn 10-6 in the SEC ? and no league team that has gone 10-6 since the league split into divisions has missed out on the NCAA tournament. Plus, a win in this gives Auburn two RPI top-50 wins, which would be two more than South Carolina - which could go to 10-6 with a win as well.
Texas at Kansas
Time, TV: 4 p.m., CBS A Kansas victory would mean the Jayhawks win the Big 12 regular-season crown. Texas, meanwhile, could help its NCAA seeding with a win.
Illinois State vs. Creighton
Time, TV: 5 p.m., Fox Sports Midwest/Comcast SportsNet Chicago This is a Missouri Valley Conference semifinal. These teams split in the regular season, with each winning at home. Creighton is the only team in the MVC with an at-large shot, but it must get to the final to have that shot.
Canisius at Siena
Time, TV: 5 p.m., MSG/Fox College Sports Atlantic This is a Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament quarterfinal. Siena swept the regular-season series. The Saints are the tourney's top seed, and they have an at-large shot should they fall in the tournament final.
TCU at Utah
Time, TV: 6 p.m., The mtn. A Utah victory means the Utes would at least share the Mountain West title. Utah, which is looking to finish 8-0 at home in conference play, is an NCAA lock. However, the Utes' seeding remains in question.
Stanford at Arizona
Time, TV: 7:30 p.m., Fox Sports Arizona Arizona has picked a bad time to have a three-game losing streak. The Wildcats must win this to stay in the hunt for an at-large bid. Stanford is coming off an upset of Arizona State.
Duquesne at Dayton
Time, TV: 8 p.m. Dayton can't afford a loss to the Dukes as it tries to nab an at-large bid.
Louisville at West Virginia
Time, TV: 9 p.m., ESPN If Pitt beats UConn, Louisville can win the Big East title outright if it wins this game. If UConn beats Pitt, Louisville would share the title with the Huskies with a victory.
Air Force at BYU
Time, TV: 9 p.m., The mtn. BYU clinches at least a tie for the Mountain West title if it beats the Falcons, who are 0-15 in conference play. BYU has won eight of its past nine and also is playing for NCAA seeding.
UNLV at San Diego State
Time, TV: 10 p.m., CBS College Sports A big game for both as they chase an NCAA at-large berth. As it stands, an at-large bid is a long shot for both ? but the loser of this one has no shot. The Aztecs won in Vegas in overtime in early February. UNLV at least knows it gets to play host to the league tourney.
Conference tournaments
No. 1 seeds in action today ? other than those already discussed ? are Butler (an NCAA lock) at home in the Horizon, against fourth-seeded Wright State at 7 p.m. on ESPNU; Northern Iowa in St. Louis in the Missouri Valley, against fourth-seeded Bradley at 2:30 p.m. on Fox Sports Midwest; Binghamton in Albany, N.Y., against ninth-seeded Hartford at 6 p.m.; and Virginia Commonwealth in Richmond in the Colonial, against eighth-seeded Georgia State at noon.
Conference tournament finals
There are three conference finals today. In the Big South, top-seeded Radford plays host to second-seeded VMI at 4 p.m. on ESPN2. In the Atlantic Sun, top-seeded Jacksonville takes on second-seeded East Tennessee in Nashville at 6 p.m. on ESPN2. And in the Ohio Valley, second-seeded Austin Peay meets fourth-seeded Morehead State in Nashville at 8 p.m. on ESPN2. None of these teams has any shot at an at-large bid.

HOW BUBBLE TEAMS FARED FRIDAY

SO-SO CHANCE FOR A BID

Creighton: The madness definitely was on display in St. Louis in the Missouri Valley tourney. Creighton let a 20-point, second-half lead evaporate, then needed a jumper that went in at the buzzer to hold off seventh-seeded Wichita State. Creighton got its last chance because Wichita State fumbled a rebound out of bounds under its basket with 1.9 seconds left. The Bluejays' only at-large hope is to advance to the tournament final. RPI: 38th. Record vs. RPI top 50: 2-0. Record vs. RPI top 100: 9-4.

Mike Huguenin is the college sports editor for Rivals.com. He can be reached at mhuguenin@rivals.com.