March 10, 2009

Mike Huguenin

We're less than a week from "Selection Sunday" (March 15), and we'll now update our bracket daily.

It's important to note that this is a projection, not how the field would look if it were decided today.

Teams are grouped by projected seed and listed from strongest to weakest within that seed. At the bottom is a breakdown by league of the number of projected bids and some information on the makeup of the field, the selection committee and the sites.

(Note: Teams denoted by asterisks already have clinched a bid. And all RPI figures are from collegerpi.com)

Rivals.com Drive for 65

No. 1s

1. North Carolina 2. Pittsburgh 3. Connecticut 4. Michigan State The buzz: It's hard to imagine a scenario where UNC, Pitt and UConn aren't No. 1 seeds. Michigan State needs to win the Big Ten title to have a shot at the last No. 1.

No. 2s

5. Louisville 6. Oklahoma 7. Duke 8. Memphis The buzz: Louisville and Oklahoma easily could be No. 1 seeds. Louisville, in fact, would be a lock for a No. 1 if it wins the Big East tournament. Memphis' biggest problem in its quest for a No. 1 seed is its lack of marquee wins. The Tigers have four wins over teams in the RPI top 50 ? eight fewer than Michigan State, five fewer than Oklahoma, four fewer than Louisville and three fewer than Duke.

No. 3s

9. Kansas 10. Villanova 11. Wake Forest 12. Washington The buzz: Washington could fall to a No. 4 seed if it plays poorly in the Pac-10 tournament. Kansas would move up to a No. 2 if it wins the Big 12 tourney.

No. 4s

13. Florida State 14. Missouri 15. Xavier 16. Illinois The buzz: Florida State and Missouri could be No. 3 seeds if they reach the finals of their league tournaments.

No. 5s

17. UCLA 18. Purdue 19. Clemson 20. Gonzaga* The buzz: UCLA would be a No. 4 if it wins the Pac-10 tournament. Gonzaga sure looked good in the West Coast tournament, but it's hard to shake the memory of the Zags getting overwhelmed by Memphis in a non-conference game in February.

No. 6s

21. Butler 22. Marquette 23. Syracuse 24. Arizona State The buzz: Marquette has lost four in a row and is suffering without injured point man Dominic James, who is out for the season.

No. 7s

25. West Virginia 26. Texas 27. Utah 28. LSU The buzz: LSU would be a No. 6 if it wins the SEC tournament. Utah could fall to a No. 8 if it loses its first game in the Mountain West tourney.

No. 8s

29. Tennessee 30. BYU 31. California 32. Wisconsin The buzz: Tennessee easily could be a seed or two higher ? and the Vols would be if they win the SEC tournament.

No. 9s

33. Texas A&M 34. Boston College 35. Ohio State 36. Dayton The buzz: While these teams should feel OK about their chances, they also want to win their respective first-round conference tournament games.

No. 10s

37. Oklahoma State 38. Arizona 39. Minnesota 40. Siena* The buzz: Siena won the MAAC tourney Monday night. To feel truly comfortable about getting a bid, Arizona needs to beat Arizona State in the second round of the Pac-10 tournament Thursday.

No. 11s

41. Michigan 42. UNLV 43. New Mexico 44. Utah State The buzz: New Mexico tied for the Mountain West regular-season title but may need to get to the tournament final to lock up a bid; UNLV, meanwhile, must win the MWC tourney to get a bid. Utah State almost certainly has to win the WAC tournament title to get a bid.

No. 12s

45. Northern Iowa* 46. South Carolina 47. Penn State 48. Rhode Island The buzz: Penn State and South Carolina still have some work to do. And, frankly, the team in the No. 48 hole doesn't really deserve to be in the field off what it has done. Rhode Island's only hope is to get to the Atlantic 10 tournament final and pray.

No. 13s

49. Virginia Commonwealth* 50. Western Kentucky 51. American 52. Weber State The buzz: VCU earned its second NCAA bid in three seasons by pounding George Mason in the CAA final Monday. Western Kentucky goes for its second consecutive Sun Belt tournament title tonight.

No. 14s

53. Stephen F. Austin 54. Binghamton 55. Kent State 56. North Dakota State The buzz: Kent State is our pick to win the MAC, which would mean winning four games in five days. North Dakota State is in the Summit League final tonight, against Oakland, one of the two teams that beat them in conference play in the regular season.

No. 15s

57. Cornell* 58. Robert Morris 59. East Tennessee State* 60. Morgan State The buzz: Robert Morris plays in the Northeast Conference tournament title game Wednesday, the same day Morgan State begins play in the MEAC tournament.

No. 16s

61. CS Northridge 62. Radford* 63. Morehead State* 64. Chattanooga* 65. Alabama State The buzz: Chattanooga finished the regular season under .500 overall, then won the Southern Conference tournament Monday night. Alabama State could "double up" and win the SWAC tournament after also winning the regular-season title. In that scenario, it will be interesting to see if the committee "rewards" Alabama State by not relegating the Hornets to the play-in game. The committee could match Chattanooga and Morehead State instead.

LAST FOUR IN

Rhode Island, Penn State, South Carolina, New Mexico

LAST FOUR OUT:

San Diego Stat, Saint Mary's, Florida, Creighton

BREAKDOWN BY LEAGUE

8: Big Ten 7: Big East 6: ACC, Big 12 5: Pac-10 4: Mountain West 3: Atlantic 10, SEC 1: America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Colonial Athletic Association, Conference USA, Horizon, Ivy, Metro Atlantic, Mid-American, Mid-Eastern Athletic, Missouri Valley, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Southwestern Athletic, Summit, Sun Belt, West Coast, Western Athletic (23)

SOME NOTES ON THE MAKEUP OF THE FIELD

? The NCAA uses an "S curve," meaning it ranks all 65 teams in order 1-65, then places them in regions under the theory the top No. 1 seed would have the worst No. 2 seed in its bracket, the worst No. 1 seed would have the top No. 2 seed, etc. The balancing of the regions is the most important factor in seeding the tournament. ? As far as other rules go, teams from the same conference hopefully won't meet until a regional final, but the NCAA has relaxed that because some conferences have six and seven bids (it's even permissible for an intraconference matchup in the second round, though that is to be avoided whenever possible). But the first three teams selected from a given conference must be in different regions. ? Higher-seeded teams should be placed as close to home as possible. No team may play on its home floor, but most sites are "neutral courts" anyway. ? Teams can move up or down a spot or two in the "S-curve," maybe even a seed, to preserve other principles. ? SEC commissioner Mike Slive is the chairman of the 10-member NCAA Tournament Selection Committee this season. He is one of four members with a "Big Six" affiliation, joining UCLA athletic director Dan Guerrero, Connecticut athletic director Jeff Hathaway and Ohio State athletic director Gene Smith. The other six members: Xavier AD Mike Bobinski, Texas-San Antonio AD Lynn Hickey, Utah AD Chris Hill, Kent State AD Laing Kennedy, UC Riverside AD Stan Morrison and George Mason AD Thomas O'Connor. O'Connor was the chairman last season. Hickey is just the second woman to ever serve on the committee, following Charlotte AD Judy Rose (1999-2003).

2009 TOURNAMENT DATES

March 17: Opening-round game in Dayton, Ohio First and second rounds March 19 and 21: Greensboro, N.C.; Kansas City, Mo.; Philadelphia; Portland, Ore. March 20 and 22: Boise, Idaho; Dayton, Ohio; Miami; Minneapolis Regional semifinals and final March 26 and 28: Boston; Glendale, Ariz. March 27 and 29: Indianapolis; Memphis, Tenn. Final Four April 4 and 6: Ford Field, Detroit

Mike Huguenin is the college sports editor for Rivals.com. He can be reached at mhuguenin@rivals.com.