March 3, 2011

Huguenin: Projecting the NCAA field of 68

"Selection Sunday" is March 13, which means we're just 10 days away from the field of 68 being unveiled. Here is our latest look at how we think the field will look that day.

It's important to note that this is a projection of how teams are going to finish, not how the field would look if it were decided today.

We will update this projection again Monday.

Teams are grouped by projected seed. At the bottom is a breakdown by league of the number of projected bids and some information on the makeup of the field, the selection committee and the sites.

Remember that this is the first season of a 68-team field. There will be four play-in games this season: two involving teams that will be No. 16 seeds and two involving the final four at-large teams. The supposition for this exercise is the final four at-large teams will be No. 12 seeds. That's why there are six teams at the Nos. 12 and 16 seedings.

Note: Asterisked teams must win their conference titles to receive an NCAA bid. Projected NCAA Field of 68
No. 1s
1. Ohio State
2. Pittsburgh
3. Kansas
4. Duke
No. 2s
5. Notre Dame
6. Purdue
7. BYU
8. Texas
No. 3s
9. San Diego State
10. Wisconsin
11. Syracuse
12. Louisville
No. 4s
13. North Carolina
14. Georgetown
15. Florida
16. St. John's
No. 5s
17. Vanderbilt
18. Connecticut
19. Xavier
20. West Virginia
No. 6s
21. Texas A&M
22. Kentucky
23. George Mason
24. Arizona
No. 7s
25. Kansas State
26. Villanova
27. Temple
28. UCLA
No. 8s
29. UNLV
30. Cincinnati
31. Old Dominion
32. Missouri
No. 9s
33. Florida State
34. Washington
35. Illinois
36. Marquette
No. 10s
37. Utah State
38. Georgia
39. Michigan State
40. Butler
No. 11s
41. Tennessee
42. Boston College
43. Gonzaga
44. Richmond
No. 12s
45. UAB*
46. Clemson
47. Saint Mary's
48. Michigan
49. Nebraska
50. Washington State
NOTE: If we could, we would leave three spots blank at this spot (wow, that would mean a 65-team field - which, of course, is what everyone is used to). But we can't. Half the teams seeded 11th and, really, five teams seeded 12th don't necessarily belong in the field.
No. 13s
51. Belmont*
52. Missouri State*
53. Oakland*
54. Princeton*
No. 14s
55. College of Charleston*
56. Fairfield*
57. Vermont*
58. Kent State*
No. 15s
59. Long Island*
60. Long Beach State*
61. Bucknell*
62. Murray State*
No. 16s
63. N. Colorado*
64. Texas Southern*
65. Louisiana-Lafayette*
66. McNeese State*
67. UNC Asheville*
68. Bethune-Cookman*
11: Big East
6: Big Ten, Big 12
4: Pac-10
3: Atlantic 10, Mountain West
2: Colonial, West Coast
1: America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Conference USA, Horizon, Ivy, Metro Atlantic, Mid-American, Mid-Eastern Athletic, Missouri Valley, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Southwestern Athletic, Summit, Sun Belt, West Coast, Western Athletic (21)
The NCAA uses an "S curve," meaning it ranks all 68 teams in order 1-68, then places them in regions under the theory the top No. 1 seed would have the worst No. 2 seed in its bracket, the worst No. 1 seed would have the top No. 2 seed, etc. The balancing of the regions is the most important factor in seeding the tournament.
As far as other rules go, teams from the same conference hopefully won't meet until a regional final, but the NCAA has relaxed that because some conferences have six and seven bids (it's even permissible for an intraconference matchup in the second round, though that is to be avoided whenever possible). But the first three teams selected from a given conference must be in different regions.
Higher-seeded teams should be placed as close to home as possible. No team may play on its home floor, but most sites are "neutral courts" anyway.
Teams can move up or down a spot or two in the "S-curve," maybe even a seed, to preserve other principles.
Ohio State athletic director Gene Smith is the chairman of the 10-member NCAA Tournament Selection Committee this season. He is one of four members with a "Big Six" affiliation, joining Big 12 commissioner Dan Beebe, Connecticut AD Jeff Hathaway and Wake Forest AD Ron Wellman. The other six members: Utah State AD Scott Barnes, Xavier AD Mike Bobinski, Big Sky commissioner Doug Fullerton, Texas-San Antonio AD Lynn Hickey, UC Riverside AD Stan Morrison and SMU AD Steve Orsini. Hickey is the second woman to serve on the committee, following Charlotte AD Judy Rose (1999-2003).
March 15: Four play-in games in Dayton, Ohio
First and second rounds
March 17 and 19: Denver, Tampa, Tucson, Ariz., and Washington, D.C.
March 18 and 20: Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland and Tulsa, Okla.
Regional semifinals and final
March 24 and 26: Anaheim, Calif., and New Orleans.
March 25 and 27: Newark, N.J., and San Antonio
Final Four
April 2 and 4: Reliant Stadium, Houston

Mike Huguenin is the college sports editor for He can be reached at

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